Goldman Sachs forecast the price of Brent crude oil at $130 (U.S.) a barrel in 2013, saying crude will continue to rise even in a poor economic growth environment.
Making public its 2013 forecast for the first time, the firm also predicted the price of U.S. crude (WTI) CL-FT at $126 a barrel in 2013, saying the WTI-Brent spread was likely to narrow further as the U.S. Seaway pipeline’s capacity rises to 400,000 barrels a day.
Goldman analysts maintained their 12-month “overweight” stance on commodities, as well as their 2012 commodity price forecasts citing their economists’ expectation of a global economic slowdown, but not a global recession.
It now expects Brent to end 2012 at $127.5 a barrel, average $130 a barrel in 2013 and end that year higher at $135 a barrel.
“We continue to view the crude oil market as navigating between the currently tight physical oil markets and the threat that the European debt crisis could trigger a global economic recession in the near future, which would lead to a sharp drop in oil demand,” analysts said in a note.
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