Iran, Oil and Geopolitics Live on Voice of Russia

February 15, 2014

price volatility?

Patricia: You're speaking hear about the US intentions to export oil, right?

Pavel: Yes.

Patricia: That is something that is extremely controversial at this point. On the side of gas, shale gas that can be exportable in the form of LNG – that is already occurring. The shipments are already going to Europe. The gas is not easy to get on the international marketplace, because of the way it has to be transported.

It’s gas and it's not liquefied, it cannot be put in a tanker so it cannot be delivered to the market outside of the existing network of pipeline infrastructure. Oil is a completely different thing and that is already a globally traded commodity. from what I have seen on the market if the US does lift the ban -- the US has prohibited the exports of domestically produced oil since 1973, the year of oil shocks. if the US were to lift that ban you're going to see pump prices for gasoline rise in the US.

The Americans would be paying what Europeans are paying and that is going to be a very deadly thing politically for anyone in politics in the US. The current producers are in favor of it, because that would make them more money if they're trading it on international markets. what happens is that's going to lift the price for refiners and if refiners have to pay a higher price sourcing their crude from outside of United States for domestic refined product consumption, that's got to be a very big political liability. You're also starting to see a significant debate around it and I don't think it's a done deal yet. It will probably be something that will go into the mid-congressional elections that are coming up this year – 2014. And it might be even something that would be included in the presidential election in 2016.