Energy Outlook on RPGC Gas Day

By Lada Ponomareva, June 27, 2013

During Gas Day at the 11th Russian Petroleum and Gas Congress, Asia Pacific Energy Center Researcher Dmitriy Sokolov presented delegates with the results of an ATEC (Japan) study by the Center on the consumption of natural gas and other energy resources in the world's largest regions around the Pacific Rim.

Latin America (Chile, Peru and Mexico)

Commenting on the main trend in this region, Sokolov pointed out the active development of gas production volumes, which foremost concerns the production of natural gas in Mexico. According to ATEC, demand for energy resources will continue to increase in all sectors of these countries.

North America (Canada and the United States)

ATEC forecasts that in North American local production of oil and natural gas will allow the region to fully reject imports by 2035. Many analysts agree with this conclusion. From 2015-2020, the region is expected to begin exporting its own natural gas.
Sokolov said that demand in these economies will be formed on low-carbon fuels, allowing the United States and Canada to become two of only a limited number of countries in the world where CO2 pollutions will see a significant drop.

South-East Asia (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)

Demand for hydrocarbon fuels in the economies of South-East Asia for the period through 2035 will actively increase. After 2020, South-East Asia has a good chance of becoming a net importer of natural gas. Here Sokolov noted that he sees certain prospects for beginning large-scale deliveries of Russian natural gas and LNG to these markets. He said that Russia has time to prepare, and no less important, the country has an understanding of this region's markets which are seeing continued growth.

The governments of countries in the South-East Asia region currently lean towards increasing their share in the coal industry — low prices play an role in this policy as does the possibility of internal supplies. Overall, in the future this could significantly exacerbate the condition of the environment in the region which will in turn boost supplies of natural gas to these markets.

North-East Asia (Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan)

Speaking on North-East Asia, Sokolov said that China is currently seeing a deceleration in the rate of economic growth. However, even given this slow down, ATEC specialists do not rule out the possibility of countries in the region achieving GDP of higher than $30,000  per capita. This, Sokolov said, makes it possible to suppose that the average resident of China will have access to consumption on the level currently seen in South Korea, or perhaps even Singapore.

This will require the availability of better quality energy and ATEC analysts expect to see significant growth in demand for natural gas. Growth in demand in the region will to a large extent be covered by external supplies of hydrocarbons.

THe coal industry will gradually be replaced by renewable energies and natural gas. And, despite the fact that CO2 output in the region will remain at a fairly