As global energy demand continues to rise, driven in particular by rapid economic growth in China and India, which, according to IEA, is bound to grow by a further 37 percent by 2040, and Asian countries plan to import two out of every three barrels of internationally traded crude oil, the accessibility, security and sustainable supply of energy tops the agenda of global energy policy-makers and industry stakeholders. A mixture of factors such as volatility of oil prices with their recent rapid decline, political unrest and social instability in the Middle East and North Africa – the main sources of low-cost oil, shale oil and tight gas revolution in the North America, a growing concern over a global climate change caused by an increase of fossil fuels CO2 emissions, a shift in global oil trade patterns and other factors affect the development of the global energy trend, and force key industry players to look for solutions to tackle different forecast scenarios to relieve the stress of uncertainty in the energy industry and find ways to make it more efficient and sustainable.
Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), held Nov. 10-13 in the UAE capital, featured a session on energy security, market supply and demand that provided a sound platform for oil and gas industry senior executives and other industry stakeholders to share insights, possible scenarios and discuss ideas.
Mussabeh Al Kaabi, CEO of Mubadala Petroleum, a UAE-based company that conducts domestic and international projects in exploration, development and production of oil and gas resources, shared his views on the global trend of oil and gas supply and demand in 2015-2035.
“By 2035 we expect hydrocarbon resources to contribute close to 80 percent of the total energy requirement globally,” Al Kaabi said.
According to him, most of the rising demand will primarily come from China, although there will also be an increase in demand in the Middle East. By 2035, global demand for oil will increase by over 30 percent from about 90 million barrels per day in 2015 to approximately 118 million barrels per day, he added.
“The majority of the increase will derive primarily from the growing energy demand in transportation sector, which will allocate close to 60 percent of global oil demand,” Al Kaabi said.
As the executive suggested, the shares of oil, coal and gas in the primary energy demand mix will be approximately even with oil and coal taking up around 27 percent and gas contributing near 25 percent by 2035. The overall dynamics of the energy demand trend in the next 20 years suggest a 6-percent drop in oil demand, a 1-1.5-percent drop in coal demand, and a 2-2.5-percent increase in gas demand. Other energy sources such as hydro and nuclear energy are projected to steadily contribute around 6 percent and 4 percent respectively, and the share of renewables is bound to grow from 2 percent in 2015 to 5 percent in 2035.
As Al Kaabi revealed, by 2035 the demand for oil