BP Forecasting Significant Growth in Global Gas Output

February 12, 2016

By Elena Kosolapova

BP forecasts the growth in global gas production from 3.13 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2014 to 4.412 billion tons of oil equivalent – in 2035, according to the BP Energy Outlook 2016.

The gas production is forecasted at the level of 3.6 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2020, 3.86 billion tons – in 2025, 4.14 billion tons – 2030.

Global supplies of natural gas grow robustly underpinned by increases in shale gas around the world, according to BP.

Shale gas grows strongly (5.6% per annum) throughout the Outlook, with the share of shale gas in total production increasing from just over 10% in 2014 to nearly a quarter by 2035.

In the first half of the Outlook period, almost all of the growth in shale output stems from the US. Further out, growth in China’s shale gas production increases, such that by 2035, China is the largest contributor to growth in shale gas production.

US shale gas is expected to grow by around 4% per annum. The US shale gas accounts for around three-quarters of total US gas production in 2035 and almost 20% of global output.

Much of the increase in conventional production comes from non-OECD countries, with marked increases in the Middle East, China, and Russia.

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